WEEK 3 DATA DUMP
The Survivors ($1M): 40,261 / 126,190 Survivors Remain (32%)
Last Week Recap
Players Eliminated: 45,119 (52.8%)
Biggest Loser: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (32.1%)
Most Common Selection: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (32.1%)
Closest Call: Philadelphia Eagles (-7) win 24-20 over Tennessee Titans
This Week's Byes
NONE (Until Week 5)
This Week's Too Close to Call Games
Green Bay Packers (-4.5) home THURSDAY NIGHT vs Atlanta Falcons
After an 0-2 start with Cooper Rush, it is officially time for Michael Potter and The Order of the Penix in Atlanta. Penix Jr. may have almost as many ACL tears as there are books in the JK Rowling series, but he has once again been given the green light to start for the Falcons. Atlanta desperately needs their QB1 to come in and cast a Wingardium Leviosa spell on an offense that's had all the magic of a Muggle out of the gate. Atlanta mustered up just 3 points against a Carolina defense that gave up 59 (!) in Week 1. The Packers are home and still the better team on paper, and they've averaged 30.5 points on Thursday night primetime games under Matt LaFleur. There's no telling how good (or bad!) Penix might make this Atlanta team though, so it's best to stay away from an already volatile spot in a short week for both teams.
New Orleans Saints (-3) home vs Las Vegas Raiders
Folks I like to call him Shough E. Cheese, because New Orleans is where a kid can still be a kid right now. QB1 Tyler Shough turns 27 the day after this game, spent seven years in college across three different schools, and is somehow still playing like the young gunslinger you'd hope to see in a second-year quarterback. A postgame pizza party at the birthday capital of the universe feels borderline-obligatory if Shough and the Saints can win their home opener on Sunday. The only thing standing in the way? The 2-0 Las Vegas Raiders. Their opponents haven't been great, and the product hasn't been all that pretty. Nevertheless, by hook or by crook, Vegas is 2-0 in Klint Kubiak's first year, and you have to respect that early in the year while everyone still figures out who's for real in 2026. Shough will get his day in the sun to put up arcade-type numbers for you to survive later in the year.
Carolina Panthers (-3) away vs Cleveland Browns
PSA for Cleveland fans: Deshaun Watson wants to be friends, guys. The Browns QB1 (for now) backtracked on his preseason comments about his home crowd, saying he "doesn't wanna go to war with the fans" after calling them disrespectful during the offseason. I, for one, couldn't agree more with Deshaun: we need to be sympathetic to a guy who's had to deal with only making $230 Million over 5 years (fully guaranteed btw) despite going 27-43 and having two dozen women accuse him of sexual misconduct. You can't begin to understand that type of struggle guys, so be nice on Sunday. For all their faults in the Watson era, Cleveland actually stands strong in a spot like this one. The Browns were 5-2 against the spread as home underdogs last year. The Panthers looked great in Week 2 but this is a tight spot to try and squeeze them in as a Survivor pick.
Houston Texans (-2.5) away vs Indianapolis Colts
At this point, you have no choice but to wonder if Sauce Gardner is anti-America. Between his time with the Jets and his tenure in Indy, the star DB hasn't won a game on United States soil in 650 days. Since trading multiple first-round picks for Gardner, the Colts are now winless in their last 9 dating back to last season. Gardner is a star by all accounts, but that trade must have allowed for some sort of bad-luck osmosis from the Jets (who are maybe, sorta, kinda not that bad?). The good news for Indy is that the Texans are 0-2 as well, once again. Nobody loves starting the year 0-2 more than CJ Stroud, and I mean nobody: the Texans have started 0-2 in 75% of Stroud's seasons with the team. History says take the Colts, recent trends say take the Texans: Indy is 33-15-1 all time vs Houston, and the Texans have won 5 straight over the Colts. Stay away from both in Week 3 if you can afford to.
New York Giants (-3) home vs Tennessee Titans
How it felt to wake up a New York Giants fan on Tuesday morning:
Pain. Despair. Sadness. Betrayal. Cataclysm. Why us, Universe. At least we'll always have that SNF Week 1 win over the Cowboys, fellas. New York announced this week that sophomore QB1 Jaxson Dart would undergo season-ending surgery to fix knee injuries suffered early in their Monday night loss to the LA Rams. Things could be way worse here for NY: Jameis Winston is (believe it or not) one of the better backups in the NFL, Harbaugh is still a solid coach, and they get the 0-2 Titans at home. The fact that NY is still a 3-point favorite tells you everything you need to know about what Vegas thinks of Tennessee. Even still, there's nothing scarier than putting your survival stake on a backup QB that you haven't seen play well yet this year. Stay away from the Giants until they give you something to smile about post-Dart injury.
Los Angeles Rams (-2.5) away SUNDAY NIGHT vs Denver Broncos
Maybe Week 1 was just Sean McVay's version of a silly lil prank? That Rams team on Monday night looked way more like the Super Bowl favorite we all expected walking into 2026 instead of the group that no-showed a 27-7 loss in Australia a week earlier. Even with star EDGE Myles Garrett and elite WR Puka Nacua both on the sidelines, LA went wire-to-wire against the Giants and brought everyone back to reality. The Rams may be who we thought they were, and they will carry you through a week of survival at some point in the season. All that said, this isn't the spot to shoehorn them in. Denver improved to 9-1 in their last 10 at home in Week 2, taking down a formidable Jaguars opponent. Between the altitude dominance that Denver has imposed on just about everyone, the primetime-ness of this matchup, and the injuries that the Rams are still dealing with for their top talent, save LA for later in the year when you'll need them.
Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) away vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
FOR PUBLIC RELEASE: Effective immediately and indefinitely, I hereby classify the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as an unserious football team. No further questions at this time. Losses in 9 of their last 11 games more than justify the ruling, and the Bucs have looked anything but put together through the beginning of 2026. That loss to the Browns was severely lacking in competent football, and while the weather delay certainly threw a wrench in Tampa's comeback plans, there's really no excuse for letting a Deshaun Watson-led team hold a lead on you that late into the fourth quarter. On the opposite side, the Vikings are 2-0 and somehow still haven't figured out who their quarterback is. Kyler Murray lasted all of five passes before Carson Wentz took the keys, and Minnesota has responded by simply refusing to let anyone score: just 25 points allowed through two games, including a 9-3 win over the Bears that should be banned from rebroadcast for the safety of viewers. The Vikings defense is legit, but a road favorite of less than a field goal with a backup QB is not where you want to plant your survival flag. Unserious or not, Tampa is still at home and desperate to avoid 0-3. Let someone else get cute with this one.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) home vs New England Patriots
My fellow Americans, this one isn't hard: don't be a weirdo, save both these teams for later in the year. Two of the best teams in the AFC last year and a combined 19-1 record to end the 2025 regular season. The Patriots bounced back from a 3-INT outing against Seattle with a 20-3 beatdown of the Steelers, and the New England defense hasn't let anyone score more than 13 points through two weeks. Jacksonville watched its 9-game win streak die at altitude last Sunday, blowing a 10-point third quarter lead to a Broncos team that looked completely lost in Kansas City a week earlier. The Jags are still a bully at home, and Vegas gives them a field goal of home cooking here. But a 3-point spread between two of last year's AFC division winners is a coin flip with extra steps. If you rode Jacksonville in Week 1 like 26.6% of the pool did, congrats, you don't even have to think about this one. Everyone else: save both of these teams for weeks when they're lining up against someone who doesn't know how to win.
Cincinnati Bengals (-3) away vs Pittsburgh Steelers
The Cincinnati Bengals have you exactly right where they want you: convinced that they might actually be a good team this year. The Bengals are 2-0, and the defense suddenly looks like it belongs in the NFL. Cincinnati is the ex who texts you at 11 p.m. to let you know they've really changed this time. They'll give you two good weeks, let you tell your friends this time is different, and then leave you on read the moment you commit. Joe Burrow was also limited in practice last week with back tightness, which is never what you want to hear about a quarterback carrying your survival hopes. On the other side, Pittsburgh looked every bit its age in a 20-3 loss to New England, but Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers are back at home, in a divisional game, against a rival they know inside and out. A 3-point road favorite in a divisional game is not where you want to test your newfound faith. Let the Bengals prove it one more week, and if they do, you can fall for them later.
Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) in BRAZIL vs Dallas Cowboys
Stop the presses on this one: do not pass go, do not collect $200. Not so fast, my friends: stay away from the international games with fields not suitable for athletic performance. All you can hear about the playing conditions down in Brazil for this matchup is that they are #BigTrash. The NFL was so busy planting its flag in South America that nobody bothered to check the grass underneath it. Like they literally sold the Amazon to show the country that we’re from is where the world should want to be: they DID the song. Having poor playing conditions creates a recipe for some sort of catastrophe that you can't afford to bet against. No matter who you like in this one, avoid the volatility of an international game and go somewhere else here.
This Week's Favorites
San Francisco 49ers (-8.5) home vs Arizona Cardinals
Roger Goodell and the administration of the National Football League are attempting to assassinate the character of Mr. Kyle Juszczyk. The NFL told the San Francisco fullback that his celebration on Sunday "could reasonably be construed as being in poor taste." The man pretended to drink a juice box. His nickname is Juice. What are your questions? This is the same NFL btw that has an official beer sponsor, sells overpriced beer in every stadium, and airs a beer commercial in what feels like every break. But listen: anytime you can make an example out of a Harvard grad who gardens in his free time and has been nominated for the league's sportsmanship award six years in a row, you have to do it. Feels like a better time than ever to point out that Josh Jacobs pleaded no contest to misdemeanor battery charges involving his ex-girlfriend two weeks ago, and the league still says there's "no timetable" for his discipline. Juice got his fine letter in four days. Glad we have our priorities straight. As for the actual football, the Niners are 2-0 with wins by a combined 42 points, and they welcome an Arizona team that came crashing back to Earth after that Week 1 upset of the Chargers. San Francisco at home as a two-score favorite is about as safe as you can ask for. Just don't celebrate too hard when it's over. The league is watching, and apparently it thinks you're drinking.
Seattle Seahawks (-7) away vs Washington Commanders
Every hero has his weak spot. Achilles' mom dipped him in the River Styx by his heel to make him (almost) invincible. Jayden Daniels' mom apparently dipped him by his left elbow, and she held on so tight she's still his agent. Daniels dislocated that same left elbow for the second time in less than a year last Sunday in Dallas, and the first one came against these same Seattle Seahawks on Sunday Night Football last November. Seattle, meanwhile, gets Sam Darnold back this week after already handling the Cardinals without him last Sunday. Washington will turn to Marcus Mariota, which gives us one of the more beautiful developments of the 2026 season: the #1 and #2 overall picks of the 2015 draft, Jameis Winston and Mariota, are both starting quarterbacks in the NFC East. Eleven years later. For two different teams whose young franchise QBs went down within about 24 hours of each other. Hello, we're back department? I'd like to file a claim. An 0-2 team with a backup QB and a battered offensive line against the defending champs with their starter back: Seattle is one of the cleaner picks on the board this week.
Buffalo Bills (-7) home vs Los Angeles Chargers
There has perhaps never been a greater showdown of QB1 famous wives and fiancées in the history of the NFL. Josh Allen, married to Hailee Steinfeld, is 2-0 since going #DadStrengthActivated. Her most famous hit is "Starving," and no one is starving more for a W than Madison Beer's fiancé and the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chargers are 0-2 after losing to the Cardinals and a Raiders team that was the worst in football last year, and Jim Harbaugh suddenly looks like a guy who'd trade his khakis for a single first down. The Bills just hung 41 on the Lions and get extra rest after playing on Thursday night. DJ Moore may be DJ No More this week after spraining his left shoulder in that win, but even without him, this is a mismatch on paper. You may want to save Buffalo for one of their two games against the Dolphins, but if you're ready to use them, Week 3 is a great spot.
Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) away MONDAY vs Chicago Bears
Really, really tough to say who had a better rendition of the "spontaneous recovery from injury" between Caleb Williams on Sunday and Cuba Gooding Jr. in Jerry Maguire. Williams went down untouched in Week 2 on a scramble, got carted off with a towel over his head like we might never see him again, and then, halfway down the sideline, whipped the towel off and pumped his arm to fire up Soldier Field. The diagnosis: sore hammy. Ben Johnson is calling it week-to-week and hasn't ruled him out for Monday Night Football against the Eagles. Cuba won an Oscar for his performance. Caleb's still waiting on his nomination. If Caleb can't go, Tyson Bagent gets the start, and that's a massive downgrade against a 2-0 Eagles team that has won without playing its best football. Vegas agrees: this line swung from Chicago as a small favorite to Philly by 6 after the injury, and has settled around 4.5 on the chance that Caleb suits up. The good news about a Monday night game is that you'll have no way to know who's under center for Chicago before you have to lock in your pick. We live for unpredictability. If it's Bagent, the Eagles are a strong play. If Caleb makes another miraculous recovery, think twice.
Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5) away vs Miami Dolphins
Thank the Good Lord that this game is a normal 1 p.m. ET kickoff, because all of us are sick. And. Tired. Of seeing Taylor Swift and the Chiefs on every. Single. Primetime. Game. Two weeks, two primetime games, and KC gave the national audience exactly what the NFL ordered both times: a 31-10 throttling of the Broncos on Monday night, then a win over a Colts team that still can't remember what winning feels like. Mahomes is Mahomes again and there's nothing you can do about it, and now he's got help: the Chiefs brought in reigning Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III, who has piled up 369 total yards through his first two games in KC. Miami is exactly who you thought they were, as long as you thought they were the worst team in football. There's no incentive to win when all eyes are already on next year's draft, and it shows. The one catch with that sweet 1 p.m. kickoff? It's late September in South Florida, and Hard Rock Stadium turns into a sauna for any visitor. Weird things often happen to teams that underestimate the heat in Miami. If you haven't burned the Chiefs yet, and you aren't afraid of some high temps, this is a clean spot.
Detroit Lions (-6.5) home vs New York Jets
Folks I like to call them the Detroit Leans, because that defense looked like it was high on Goff syrup Thursday night in Buffalo. It has to be a little embarrassing to welcome home your old defensive coordinator, Jets HC Aaron Glenn, after having given up 71 points in two games. That includes 400+ passing yards to Tyler Shough and 41 points to the Bills in Week 2. But the Jets arrive in Detroit fresh off blowing a 17-7 lead to Green Bay in a 20-17 overtime loss, thanks in part to Glenn's failed fourth-and-1 call at midfield with 1:15 left. For a coach already on the hot seat in Year 2, that's not the kind of decision you want to be defending at your old stomping grounds. Detroit is back home after a mini-bye, desperate to fix its defense, and facing a Jets team that still hasn't shown it can finish. If you're not yet sold that the Jets can hang this year, the Lions are a solid play.