WEEK 2 DATA DUMP
The Survivors: ($1M) 85,380 / 126,190 Survivors Remain (68%)
Last Week Recap
Players Eliminated: 40,180 (32%)
Biggest Loser: Los Angeles Chargers (25.4%)
Most Common Selection: Jacksonville Jaguars (26.6%)
Closest Call: Detroit Lions win 31-30 in OT over New Orleans Saints
Tyler Shough was Tyler Just-Not-Enough on Sunday. The second-year signal caller threw for over 400 yards and rallied back from a 21-0 deficit to force OT, all just to lose on a failed 2 PT conversion in overtime. About 12.5K survivors rode the Lions on Sunday and had to sweat out a sudden death overtime result.
This Week's Byes
None!
This Week's Too Close to Call Games
Denver Broncos (-2.5) home vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Football is officially BACK and everybody knows it EXCEPT for the Denver Broncos. Denver had all offseason to prepare and showed up to Monday night football looking like they found out they had a game in Kansas City roughly 3-5 minutes prior to kickoff. Impossible to tell from Monday's matchup that it was the Broncos who went 14-3 and the Chiefs who missed out on the playoffs last season. Kansas City ran all over the highly regarded Denver defense, and the Broncos' offense was even more concerning. Offseason acquisition Jaylen Waddle had 1 catch for 3 yards and Bo Nix held an average depth of target at 3.86 yards. For the non-nerds, that means the average distance between Nix and the receiver he threw to on a given play was about the same as the distance between your couch and your TV on Sunday. In spite of all that, the Broncos are still favorites against a Jaguars team that crushed their Week 1 foe. You have to make the Broncos prove themselves before you take them in Survivor.
Carolina Panthers (-1.5) away vs Atlanta Falcons
Cooper Rush took a sack on two-thirds of his pressures in Week 1. Yikes. Feels like we're bordering on Stolen Valor to have the last name "Rush" while also succumbing to the rush 66% of the time you face it. Atlanta's Week 1 starting QB did little to inspire hope for the Dirty Birds this season. The best ability is availability though, and Rush is all the Falcons have as far as healthy signal-callers go. He's in line to start Week 2 as Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix are both still nursing injuries. It's tempting to capitalize on Rush and the Falcons here but the Panthers just gave up 59 points at home, so you can't trust them just yet to stop anyone.
Buffalo Bills (-4.5) home THURSDAY NIGHT vs Detroit Lions
No one circles the wagons like the Buffalo Bills and there will be no crowd as alive as the Bills Mafia Thursday night in their brand new Highmark Stadium. Buffalo just racked up 36 points on what several believe to be the best defense in the NFL. Josh Allen balled out for 334 yards, and the Bills now get a Detroit team that just let Tyler Shough throw for over 400 yards in Week 1. Everything here says take the Bills. That, my friends, is EXACTLY why you have to stay away. Weird things happen in the most certain of circumstances on Thursday night and you just cannot test that fate. Buffalo is a team you'll want to have late in the year when they get the Dolphins multiple times before the season's end.
Green Bay Packers (-3.5) away vs New York Jets
Nobody, and I mean nobody, finds a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory quite like the Green Bay Packers. GB went into halftime of Week 1 up 19-10 and still found a way to lose by three scores. Dating back to Week 1 of 2025 that is the SIXTH time the Packers have held a second half lead of 9+ and still took a loss. Their habitual meltdowns have become impossible to ignore, and the offensive line play was much to blame. Who knows if the Jets are for real or if the Titans just really were that bad in Week 1. New York's strong Week 1 performance warrants caution in betting against them until we figure out if their beatdown of the Titans was an anomaly or a sign of things to come.
Seattle Seahawks (-4.5) away vs Arizona Cardinals
"It's Drew Lock time" — Drew Lock, all the time. Sam Darnold handed the keys to the Seahawks' offense over to Lock after suffering a hip injury on the first series of opening night. Darnold will be out for at least another week, and while Lock was less than inspirational replacing him against New England, the Seahawks have the horses to manage just fine in Darnold's absence. Even still, the Cardinals are not the ones to be trifled with: their upset over the Chargers as 10.5 point underdogs eliminated over ¼ of the survivor pool in Week 1. The Cardinals will likely gravitate towards what we expected them to be, but I wouldn't bet on it happening at home against a backup QB here in Week 2.
Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) home vs Washington Commanders
Welcome to the NFC East losers bracket folks: Dallas and Washington get another crack at a Divisional foe after dropping their Week 1 openers to the Giants and Eagles, respectively. Dallas is still catching the Vegas odds here by living off their preseason reputation. In the same exact situation last Sunday, as a 3.5 point favorite against a division rival, the Cowboys dropped just their 4th ever L to the Giants in the 18 games since the beginning of the Dak Prescott era. Not only that, Dallas was uninspiring on both defense and offense. Washington did little besides look presentable in Week 1 to instill fear, but the Cowboys are gonna have to prove their worth as a favorite before drawing interest from Survivors.
Houston Texans (-3) home vs Cincinnati Bengals
The last time the Cincinnati Bengals forced 4 fumbles from their opponent, Joe Burrow was playing football for Ohio State. Let's hope for the sake of the state that the signs of life from the Cincy defense stop Joe Burrow from leaving Ohio to play somewhere else this time around. The 4 turnovers are an anomaly, and not something you can count on getting every week. Even still, there's a lot to like from the Bengals D from Sunday: 50% of Tampa's passes were thrown behind the line of scrimmage. Cincy contained a typically explosive offense in TB and they'll be dangerous this year if they can continue to do that. The Texans are usually a strong home team but they dropped their Week 1 matchup in Houston, and star WR Nico Collins may miss this one with a hamstring injury, so they're an unreliable favorite in Week 2.
This Week's Favorites
Baltimore Ravens (-8.5) home vs New Orleans Saints
If you ever feel like you need to keep your confidence in check, just remind yourself that somewhere on Sunday, Diego Pavia (probably) watched the Ravens put up 41 points and thought to himself, "Would have been way more if they had me out there". The 5'8" (that's generous) scorned Heisman hopeful got cut from the Ravens before even making it to training camp after going undrafted. Somehow, some way, Baltimore survived his absence in Week 1 and beat up the Colts on their home turf. The Ravens went into the season with the second best Vegas odds to make the playoffs. They looked the part in Week 1, racking up 500+ total yards on offense. Baltimore does have a history of dropping early games to inferior opponents in years past: they lost in Week 2 of 2024 as 8.5 point favorites at home vs the Raiders, just like they are here. While they have swapped out coaching staffs since then, much of the faces are still the same. Their top receiver, Zay Flowers, is uncertain for Sunday with a hamstring injury. His game status is worth monitoring if you're thinking of using the Ravens to survive.
Los Angeles Chargers (-7) home vs Las Vegas Raiders
For just the second time in his 7 year career, Justin Herbert has lost in Week 1. He's now 5-1 in openers while still on the market, winless as an engaged man. Coincidence? I think not. Do the right thing, Madison Beer: pack it up, for the good of the team. The Chargers continue a trend worth saving for later: Week 1 favorites of 10 or more are just 9-25 against the spread since 2003. Boy-wonder Mike McDaniel was brought on to the staff this offseason, capris pants and all, to fix this team's lackluster offense. Their offensive output of 14 points on Sunday would have been their 4th lowest point total last season. Suddenly the gold-frame sunglasses and jewelry become super lame when the offense you coordinate sucks. To add injury to insults, star WR Ladd McConkey is now questionable for Week 2 with a hip injury. On the other side, you can talk all day about how bad the Raiders are and how bad their Week 1 opponent was, but 1-0 is 1-0. The Chargers are still 7 point favorites here, so sportsbooks think things will come back to reality for both Los Angeles and Vegas on Sunday.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8.5) home vs Cleveland Browns
Hi I'm Baker Mayfield and I'm addicted to turning the football over. The former Heisman had THREE fumbles in Week 1, one for every year that the Bucs just committed $55 Million annually to him. Coughing up the football three times is #BadForBusinessWithACapitalB but there's actually a lot of positives to take away from this game if you're an optimist. Mayfield had never lost three fumbles in a game before Sunday, so you can assume it won't happen again anytime soon. Even with those three turnovers, one of which was returned for a TD, Tampa Bay STILL pulled within one score of the Bengals in the fourth before Cincy closed out the contest. No matter how you feel about the turnover problem for Tampa, you have to consider them in Week 2 given their opponent. Cleveland has a knack for pulling off a big upset early at home. On the road though and with Watson still at QB, you never say never on betting against the Browns.
Los Angeles Rams (-7) home MONDAY NIGHT vs New York Giants
Seeing the Rams favored by 7 in Week 2 is like seeing a group project and having the partner who did none of the work get an A+ while the other gets an F-. Neither of these teams deserve to see the spread they have aligned to them in Week 2. Los Angeles got all the shine this offseason with their huge acquisitions, just to head over to Australia and lay an ostrich-sized egg in their 27-7 Week 1 loss. Even worse, EDGE Myles Garrett hit the Injured Reserve list for at least the next month, and we're still not certain that DL Aaron Donald will make his return to action in Week 2. While the Rams stuck their heads in the sand in their opener, the Giants showed up in primetime and balled out, defeating the Cowboys 28-20 on Sunday Night Football. Yes, the Giants will travel across the country for this game, and yes, the Rams will have had over 10 days of rest between Week 1 and Week 2. That being said, anyone who only accounts for what they've seen on the field this year would be more inclined to take New York here, if not for the 7 point spread.
Chicago Bears (-5.5) home vs Minnesota Vikings
Kyler Murray has fallen and he CANNOT get up. 5 passes, 18 yards and 1 interception for Murray, and who knows we'll see him in the field again. If things are serious and that's it for Kyler in Minnesota, still a toss-up on who's had a better career in a Vikings uniform between him and JJ McCarthy. It was no little guy, no problem in the second half for the Vikings though: Minnesota outscored the Packers 22-0 in the final quarter to win with ease. You can attribute the GB meltdown to the immense pressure from Minnesota's defense. The Vikings blitzed on 78% of plays against Green Bay; no other NFL team reached 45% in Week 1. If there's any team ready to handle Minnesota's rush, it's the Bears: Chicago scored 59 points in Week 1 (the second-highest Week 1 total ever), and QB Caleb Williams scrambled for 65 yards and 2 TDs. Both matches between these divisional foes were decided by 3 points or less last year, and the Bears offense vs Vikings defense matchup is Goliath vs Purple Goliath, but the Bears draw the 5.5 point spread advantage with Minnesota starting Carson Wentz on Sunday.
Philadelphia Eagles (-7) away vs Tennessee Titans
The Tennessee Titans ran 94% of their offensive plays in Week 1 trailing by 7 or more points. Is that bad? I think it might be bad. Someone please let me know if that's bad. Have a feeling it's kinda bad. In defense of the Titans, they did go up against a traditional powerhouse of the NFL: the Jets. The New York Jets… Things don't get any better for the Titans as they welcome the 1-0 Eagles. Philadelphia squeaked out of Week 1 with a narrow victory and did little to inspire you to take them in Week 2. That being said, the Eagles are built to run the football (so they say), and the Titans just let the Jets rush for 150+ yards in Week 1. Tennessee just got blown out in their own stadium, so the home field advantage here is pretty negligible. Win or lose, at least both of the fan bases in this one can trauma bond over having to deal with AJ Brown having played for their teams.
Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) SUNDAY NIGHT home vs Indianapolis Colts
Hope you got your jokes off on Kansas City last year because they're back on the map and there's nothing you can do about it. KC had no regrets after a 31-10 throttling of their AFC West rival, the Denver Broncos, on Monday night. The only low note of the Week? Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce was named as a victim in a $35 Million ponzi scheme case on Tuesday. When you're 36 though, in the fight of your life for relevance, and married to someone way richer than you, any publicity is good publicity. Even if it's costly. Arrowhead stadium has been good to Pat Mahomes and Pat Mahomes has been good to Arrowhead: the Chiefs improved to 50-14 in the Mahomes era when playing at home. Week 2 shapes up to be much of the same, as Indianapolis is now winless in their last 8 contests dating back to 2025. Daniel Jones in Week 1 looked like a guy who might wish he had a little more time to heal up that Achilles in the offseason. The KC pass rush showed their ability to exploit his lack of mobility in their performance against a formidable Broncos offensive line on Monday night. It might be prudent to wait one more week to let Kansas City prove it, but it looks like the Chiefs are the Chiefs once again.
New England Patriots (-5.5) home vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Somebody get Drake Maye an endorsement deal with a sunglass provider ASAP because the spotlight was WAY too bright for my guy on Opening Night. The Super Bowl revenge opportunity will unfortunately go unexploited for the Pats. Maye threw 3 interceptions, including a back-breaker in the end zone with just 26 seconds remaining, en route to a 13-10 loss. It wasn't an inspiring performance for a team that thrived off a soft schedule last season, but New England has been here before: the Patriots took a loss in Week 1 of 2025 (to the Raiders…) and still found their way to a 14-3 record and a Super Bowl appearance. They'll be without AJ Brown for the next 4 weeks, but they performed just fine without him last year. They did drop an early game to the Steelers, at home, in Week 3 last year though, so history could repeat itself. Pittsburgh did get the win last week, but their weak opponent and uninspiring "death by 1000 swing passes to the running back" strategy may not hold up against anyone besides a Cooper Rush-led Falcons team.
San Francisco 49ers (-13.5) home vs Miami Dolphins
The most important lesson you can learn out of Week 1 is that no team is as good OR as bad as you think they are after Week 1. For the 49ers, who just blew out the presumed Super Bowl favorite LA Rams in Australia, that adage is probably true. The Miami Dolphins though? They really might just be that bad. Honestly they might be worse. The Fins let 2025's worst team stomp all over them. Even worse, they let Kirk Cousins pretend for just another day that he still has something left in the tank. Miami looks like the early frontrunner for the #1 overall pick and that might be just how they want things. There's no incentive to win games when all eyes are on next year's draft for them. Malik Willis had some flashes and there's some promise in a few pieces on both sides of the ball, but Miami is the youngest team by average age in the NFL (25.3 years old) and their inexperience showed itself front and center Week 1. The Dolphins elected to stay in Napa Valley between their first two games, and they're positioned to head back home with an 0-2 record and some sour grapes on the whole "trying to compete" thing in 2026.