WEEK 1 DATA DUMP
The Survivors
Main Pool: ($1M) 100,000 / 100,000 Survivors Remain (100%)
This Week's Byes
None (Until Week 5)
This Week's “Too Close to Call” Games
Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) home vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Nothing like a good old #MidOff to start the season. The Bengals draw the 2.5 point edge from Vegas here but that certainly isn't based off of past trends. Cincinnati is notorious for stumbling out of the gates with their current regime. Joe Burrow is just 2-4 in Week 1 games in his career. Both those wins come by 3 points or less to teams that would end that season with losing records. Everyone is quick to label the Bengals as a dark horse contender in 2026. I however, like my biblical dog Doubting Thomas, have gotta see it to believe it before I can place my survivor life in the hands of Cincinnati.
Buffalo Bills (-1.5) away vs Houston Texans
Texans QB1 CJ Stroud will officially play this season without a contract extension after he turned down the Texans best and final offer of $55 Million annually. If I ever turn down $55 mil per year, please institutionalize me with haste. Stroud may be playing with extra motivation to prove he's worth a bigger deal, and he's got his work cut out for him in Week 1 with the Bills. Buffalo and Houston will play in Texas for the third straight year and Houston has won both of those matchups, with the Bills favored both times. Josh Allen did acquire #DadStrength this offseason after he and Hailee Steinfeld had their first child together. Even still, this game will be too close to feel good about the Bills here.
Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) home WEDNESDAY NIGHT vs New England Patriots
If you feel compelled to take the Seahawks in this game then I feel compelled to put on a list of individuals who pose great risk to National Security. It's the first game of the year, a Super Bowl rematch with two teams who only got better this offseason, and if you lose here, then your Survivor journey is over with 72+ hours before we even get to the first Sunday. The Seahawks are the favorite and it's hard to forget about how badly they throttled the Patriots in the Super Bowl. Even though it is banner night at Lumen Field, Seattle is actually not a great home team: they were just 6-4 against the spread in Seattle last year, and the Patriots were road dogs in 2025 (7-2 against the spread away from home). Save both these teams for when they're up against an opponent that isn't fresh off a Super Bowl run and live to see Sunday of Week 1.
Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) in AUSTRALIA THURSDAY vs San Francisco 49ers
Everyone, say it with me:
I will not pick a team on Thursday night in 2026
I will not pick a team on Thursday night in 2026
I will not pick a team on Thursday night in 2026
I will not pick a team on Thursday night in 2026
I will not pick a team on Thursday night in 2026
(Unless they are playing the Jets)
These teams gave us the best example of why the Thursday night game is off limits: the 49ers knocked off the Rams as 9.5 point underdogs on the road with a backup QB in Week 5 of 2025. Thursday nights breed chaos, end transmission. These teams are also an even 4-4 in the last 4 years against each other, and the international travel of this all is its own wrinkle. People look at the Rams as a superteam, and for good reason: they acquired EDGE Myles Garrett and convinced hall of famer DL Aaron Donald to come out of retirement. They will have plenty of opportunities to beat up on bad teams this year on Sundays inside the US of A, so don't be a weirdo and try to use them here in Week 1.
Tennessee Titans (-2.5) home vs New York Jets
The simple-minded man would be quick to call this a #RevengeGame for Robert Saleh: he takes over Head Coaching duties for the Titans and faces the Jets, who unceremoniously fired him in his fourth season as their HC just two years ago. That leads us to the question: should you really be seeking revenge against the people who stopped you from having to work for the New York Jets franchise? Shouldn't you be praising them for their benevolence?? Not sure Saleh sees it that way, but Vegas labels him in a better spot now as slight favorites in Week 1 over NY. The Jets are getting back with their ex Geno Smith at QB after writing him off not long ago, and 2026 is likely a make or break year for both him and their year 2 Head Coach, Aaron Glenn. Both of these teams are ones you'll want to avoid using for the entire survivor season if you can afford it.
Las Vegas Raiders (-3.5) home vs Miami Dolphins
Did you draft Brock Bowers to your fantasy football team? If so, you may be entitled to financial compensation. Just 3 days before the start of the season, the Raiders announced that their star Tight End will be out 4-6 weeks after sudden knee surgery. Folks I like to call him Brock Ow-ers because that man just ALWAYS finds a way to get hurt. In addition to the Bowers loss, the Raiders were the worst team in the NFL last year, went from awful to awful-but-white at the QB position with Kirk Cousins taking over this year for Geno Smith. How they are 3 point favorites is a true mystery, even if the Dolphins are on a one-way ticket to Tank City. Stay away from this slopfest of a football game.
Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5) home MONDAY NIGHT vs Denver Broncos
Even though the Broncos went 14-3 and beat the Chiefs both times they played in 2025, it actually makes a lot of sense to see Kansas City favored in this game. When you really look at it, the only thing that the Broncos ACTUALLY did better than the Chiefs in 2025 was run the ball, throw the ball, stop the run, defend the pass, score points, stop other teams from scoring points, play well on special teams, and win football games. It's clear Vegas expects Patrick Mahomes to return to his MVP form after recovering from a torn ACL, and the home crowd will certainly help with that. It's best to let Mahomes prove to you he's back before you place your survivor life on him, and you can afford to wait until he's not up against a defense as formidable as the Broncos.
Chicago Bears (-2.5) away vs Carolina Panthers
Short kings everywhere, rejoice: they gave Bryce Young the starting job for another season. He continues to carry the water for vertically challenged men everywhere, and the Panthers move forward with him as their guy for the last season of his initial rookie deal. The Bears are a trendy contender to make a deep playoff run after winning their division in 2025, but the Panthers are no slouch either. Carolina made the playoffs in their own right last season, and they did so by performing well at home: the Panthers were 6-3 against the spread in Charlotte last year. Young goes from 4-20 on the road to 10-12 at home in his career. If you're going to bet against Carolina this season, catch them on the road instead of testing their mettle in their home stadium.
Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) home vs Green Bay Packers
The tight spread in this one is indicative of the long history of back-and-forth battles between these teams. In 131 all-time matchups, the Packers have won just 6 more games (67) than the Vikings (61), and 3 have ended in ties. These teams are the best example of why it's best to avoid divisional foes when you can. Maybe you'd be able to convince yourself of an edge for Green Bay if the Vikings had stubbornly stuck with JJ McCarthy, but swapping Mr. Nine for Mr. Five-Foot-Nine, Kyler Murray, gives Minnesota the stability to make this an even matchup you want to stay away from.
This Week's Favorites
Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5) home vs Cleveland Browns
Cleveland Browns fans, your prayers have been answered: Deshaun Watson is BACK. Deshaun will start anew, suiting up for the first time since early 2024 after overcoming multiple Achilles injuries and his addiction to sexual misconduct with massage therapists. Watson's new fetish is that he likes to dress up like himself and throw the ball to the wrong team. A lot. The only thing worse than Watson's play as a Brown (2-5 against the spread in 2024) is Cleveland's play on the road in recent years: the Browns are 3-14 over their last 2 seasons away from home. Jaguars love to bully teams on their home turf, tallying 5 wins by 2+ touchdowns in #Duuuuuvallll during their 2025 campaign. The Browns are sometimes a feisty underdog when playing at home, but there's not much to make you fearful of taking Jacksonville in this spot.
Los Angeles Chargers (-10.5) home vs Arizona Cardinals
If you have a sneaking suspicion that the Cardinals might not be so good this year, you are not alone my friend. Arizona is the only team in the NFL to go into the season not favored to win a single game on their schedule. The offensive coordinator is Nathaniel Hackett, known for being fired into the Sun after half a season as the Broncos Head Coach. Their #3 overall draft pick, star RB Jeremiyah Love, is 50/50 to start and their QB1 options are Jacoby Brissett or Carson Beck. Yuck. On the other side, Jim Harbaugh owns openers: Harbaugh is 6-0 in Week 1 as an NFL head coach. The Chargers usually find a way to have their entire team hospitalized indefinitely by Week 8, so you may want to use them now while they still have a (somewhat) intact offensive line in front of their QB1, Justin Herbert.
Detroit Lions (-7) home vs New Orleans Saints
These two teams could not have ended their 2025 seasons on more different terms: Detroit missed out on the playoffs for the first time in 3 years after dropping 3 of their last 4, while the Saints found their guy in QB Tyler Shough, who took over midway through the season and led New Orleans to a 5-1 record in their final 6 contests. The Lions get the big bump based on reputation and their home crowd advantage, but there's no reason why the Saints can't go marching into 2026 on the same trend they finished out 2025 with. Detroit comes into this season with a lot to prove after a shocking last place finish in the 2025 NFC North standings. They'll have to play very well to live up to the 7 point spread they see here.
Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) home vs Washington Commanders
If you happen to know a really good real estate agent in the DC area that will be available in ~7 weeks, please reach out to Commanders HC Dan Quinn ASAP. That might be a little dramatic, but it's tough to find a game in the first half of Washington's schedule that you feel great about them winning. The fall from grace for D.C. was #BigBad in 2025, as they took L's in 10 of their final 12 contests en route to a last place NFC East finish just a year after reaching the Conference Championship Game. Washington's biggest flaw last season was their ability to protect QB1 Jayden Daniels, who managed to suit up for just 7 games. Their top offensive lineman, Laremy Tunsil, is now out for the year with a torn triceps muscle, and the O-line has been described by analysts as "inoperable" in training camp in Tunsil's absence. Folks I am no expert but I am here to tell you that "operability" IS in fact a desirable trait for your favorite football team. The Eagles have the defensive line to exploit Washington's greatest weakness, and the sky is the limit for the Eagles now that they've distanced themselves from the soap opera that was AJ Brown. Philly QB1 Jalen Hurts is 7-3 in his career vs the Commanders, and he's positioned nicely to continue that trend in Week 1.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) home vs Atlanta Falcons
UPDATE: Tagovailoa has been ruled OUT for Week 1 after tweaking his back in practice. Cooper Rush will get the start, and Pittsburgh is now a 6 point favorite.
Ladies and gentlemen, your Atlanta Falcons Week 1 starting QB is… Tua Tagovailoa! Folks I like to call him Pee-Yew-A Tagovailoa because that guy STINKS. All reports out of training camp are that Tua "made it impossible" to name him the Falcons starter until current backup Michael Penix was deemed unready to play, still recovering from his 525,600th torn ACL surgery. You may only get so many chances to bet against Tagovailoa before he's benched this year, and this is a solid spot to go for it. Aaron Rodgers enters his 22nd and final season and he's got the band back together with Mike McCarthy for one last ride. At 42 years young, Rodgers is as agile as a cat if that cat were half-dead from an Ayahuasca overdose. The Falcons lost one starting defensive end to a torn ACL and the other to an 8-game suspension this offseason, so they're not positioned to exploit Mr. Discount Double Check's stoic nature. McCarthy and Rodgers were 10-1 together in home openers with Green Bay. If they can capture any of that magic from 2008-2018, they're a better pick than the 3.5 point spread would lead you to believe.
Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) away vs Indianapolis Colts
Folks I like to call them the Indianapolis Colds because the way they played to end the season last year was absolutely sickening. Indy went from an NFL best 8-2 record to missing the playoffs at 8-9 after dropping their final 7 games of the season and became just the 5th team since 1970 to win at least 8 of their first 10 and still miss out on a postseason bid. Daniel Jones showed signs of life last year in his first season as a Colt, but a torn Achilles cut his year short and leaves his ability to look like the same guy from 2025 in doubt. While the Colts decided to stick with HC Shane Steichen in spite of that collapse, the Ravens turned the page, letting go of John Harbaugh after 18 years as head honcho in Baltimore. After a 1-5 start, the Ravens clawed their way back into the playoff picture before a missed field goal as time expired in Week 17 wrapped their season up and sent them home. Between Baltimore's 8-4 finish in 2025 and their new hire in Jesse Minter as HC, the Ravens have the second-best Vegas odds to make the playoffs. They'll be favored in most games they play, and their stability in comparison to the Colts makes them slight road favorites in Week 1.
Dallas Cowboys (-3) away SUNDAY NIGHT vs New York Giants
Great news for Giants fans everywhere: things could not possibly go worse than the last time you had the Cowboys in primetime on Sunday Night Football to open the season. New York welcomed Dallas in Week 1 of 2023 and got promptly throttled, 40-0. There's been a lot of that going on in this rivalry, as Dallas QB1 Dak Prescott holds a 14-3 record against New York. Two of those losses stem from his rookie season, and the last came in Week 18 of 2025, when his backup played the majority of the contest. The Giants opted for the #Adult-In-The-Room strategy in hiring John Harbaugh to avoid embarrassing moments like Week 1 of 2023. Harbaugh is 12-6 in season openers, and only one of those losses came by more than 7 points. If nothing, you have to think he can keep New York within a respectable margin this time around.