WEEK 6 DATA DUMP
The Survivors ($1M): 14,168 / 126,190 Survivors Remain (11%)
Last Week Recap
Players Eliminated: 38,126
Biggest Loser: Dallas Cowboys (44%)
Most Common Selection: Dallas Cowboys
Closest Call: Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5) win 19-17 over Philadelphia Eagles (London)
The Eagles were down their best running back and two of their top receivers, and they still kicked a go-ahead field goal with eight seconds left. Then Ameer Abdullah ran the kickoff back to the Philly 39, went down with 1 second remaining, and Cam Little drilled a 57-yard field goal. Brutal time to be an Eagle.
This Week's Byes
Minnesota Vikings
Detroit Lions
Miami Dolphins
Cincinnati Bengals
This Week's Too Close to Call Games
Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5) vs Houston Texans in LONDON
The Jaguars have spent more Sundays in London lately than Prince Harry. Two weeks, two trips across the pond, and Jacksonville is 4-1 after that miracle finish against the Eagles. Houston finally found their way to the Win column, scoring 26 unanswered after giving up a field goal on the Titans' first drive. It's a divisional game in a foreign country at 9:30 a.m. ET kickoff, and the Jags are only favored by 2.5. That's a triumvirate of red flags before you even get to the football, so avoid at all costs.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) away vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Before last Thursday, the Buccaneers hadn't covered a spread in 13 straight games, going back to Week 8 of last season. Then Jalon Daniels, an undrafted rookie quarterback, walked into Dallas as a 9.5-point underdog and beat the Cowboys 24-16, the biggest upset of the season. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has alternated wins and losses all year, and after beating the Colts 34-22, their snip-snapiness tells you Pittsburgh is not to be trusted.
Baltimore Ravens (-3) away vs Cleveland Browns
Tyler Huntley (probably) gets another start after winning in Atlanta last Sunday night with a game-tying touchdown pass, a two-point conversion, and a dive into the end zone in overtime. Cleveland's three-game win streak ended in a 17-12 rock fight with the Jets, in which the Browns didn't find the end zone until the fourth quarter. It's a divisional game with a backup QB on the road, so stay away.
Chicago Bears (-1.5) away vs Atlanta Falcons
The three-act play of the Bears backup quarterback drama has finally ended in tragedy. Tyson Bagent threw two interceptions, got yanked in the fourth quarter, and the Bears got smoked 31-7 in Green Bay. Have no fear though: Caleb Williams is back after missing three games with a hamstring injury. Michael Penix Jr. is expected to play through a rib injury he suffered late in the loss to Baltimore, where backup Tua Tagovailoa ended things in overtime by throwing an interception almost instantly. The total has climbed to 52.5, and one sportsbook pointed out that nobody is betting on any rust from a guy who hasn't played in a month. Two banged-up quarterbacks in a shootout? Pass.
Carolina Panthers (-3) away vs Philadelphia Eagles
There are 25 Philadelphia Eagles on the injury report this week. Twenty-five. Who knows where Philly is going to get players from: the guys who made the movie Invincible may need to start writing the sequel. Jalen Hurts is now out with a superficial blood clot in his calf. Tanner McKee is no slouch but a backup is a backup for a reason. Philly has lost three straight and is 1-4 against the spread, most recently losing on that 57-yard field goal in London. Carolina comes in rested off a bye, and its last game was a 32-26 upset of the Lions. Two flawed teams, one missing its franchise QB. A road favorite of three is not a survival plan.
New Orleans Saints (-1.5) away vs New York Giants
The Giants still haven't lost since Jaxson Dart went down for the year. That technically weaves around their 27-27 tie in Washington last week, but everyone knows the Commanders lost that tie. New York is 3-1-1. The Saints are 1-4 and have lost three straight after a promising start. This line has flipped back and forth between the two teams multiple times this week, which is Vegas telling you it has no idea either.
Green Bay Packers (-1.5) home SUNDAY NIGHT vs Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys were 9.5-point favorites last Thursday against an undrafted rookie quarterback and lost by eight on national TV. Dallas has alternated wins and losses all season, so it's due for a win, which is the only thing we can say about the Cowboys with any confidence. Green Bay just dominated the Bears 31-7, and early bettors are hammering the Over, which has moved only half a point despite all that one-way action. A primetime game that's basically a pick'em. Don't force yourself to sweat this out through the night.
This Week's Favorites
Los Angeles Rams (-12.5) home vs Arizona Cardinals
The Rams have alternated wins and losses in each of their first five games after all the hullabaloo of their super team status this offseason. After losing 37-34 in overtime to Buffalo, including a blocked field goal in the extra period, LA is due for a win. Arizona has lost four straight since its Week 1 upset of the Chargers, most recently falling behind 38-14 through three quarters in Detroit. A double-digit home favorite against a team in free fall is about as good as it gets. Take the Rams.
Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5) home vs Los Angeles Chargers
Andy Reid off a bye week is one of the most dependable stats in football: he's 9-4 coming off a bye with the Chiefs and 22-5 lifetime. The Chargers are 0-5 and still winless against the spread, and last week they gave up the final 13 points to lose to Denver after leading in the fourth quarter. It is a divisional game, but KC is the call.
New England Patriots (-7.5) home vs New York Jets
What a difference a couple weeks makes. Drake Maye has gone from getting benched for Tommy DeVito to scoring 74 points in two weeks after following up the Buffalo upset with a 45-17 demolition of the Raiders. The defending AFC champs are back above .500 and 4-1 against the spread. The Jets snapped a three-game losing streak with a late touchdown to beat Cleveland 17-12, which says more about the Browns than it does about New York. Divisional games always carry some risk, but this is a strong spot.
Indianapolis Colts (-7) home vs Tennessee Titans
Tennessee kicked a field goal on its opening drive against Houston last week and then spent the next 55 minutes in witness protection. The Titans are 0-5 and have lost seven straight going back to last season. Indy fell 34-22 in Pittsburgh but kept it close most of the way and is back home against the worst offense in the AFC South. Bettors are piling onto the Colts, and so should you. It's divisional, but one of these teams hasn't won a game since last year.
Buffalo Bills (-5.5) away vs Las Vegas Raiders
Buffalo's overtime win over the Rams wasn't a win so much as a near-death experience playing with fire. Khalil Shakir caught a 57-yard pass to open OT, James Cook fumbled on the very next play, LA lined up a game-winning field goal, and the Bills blocked it before Tyler Bass won it from 45. For the Raiders, their perfect run against the spread ended in a 45-17 beatdown in New England. Bettors are taking the Raiders with the points but backing the Bills to win outright, and that's the right read for survival: Buffalo wins, even if it's not pretty.
San Francisco 49ers (-7.5) home MONDAY NIGHT vs Washington Commanders
With 12 seconds left in overtime, no timeouts, and the ball at the Giants' 24-yard line, the Commanders had one job: kick a field goal and win the game. Instead, they ran a pseudo run play, Jayden Daniels got tackled in the middle of the field, and the clock ran down to zero. That's how Washington blew a 27-13 fourth-quarter lead and settled for a tie, and Dan Quinn is officially on the hot seat. In Dan Quinn's defense, how was he supposed to know the clock would keep running after his QB got tackled in bounds? Who could have predicted that? San Francisco is 5-0 after beating the defending champs on Eddy Pineiro's field goal with 1:56 left. The 49ers at home against a team that just forgot how clocks work? Take the Niners.